“Years of killer storms likely”

Okay, so it wasn’t nearly as prescient as the Times-Picayune “Washing Away” series … but here’s a piece I wrote for the paper last September:

Daily News (New York)
September 12, 2004 Sunday
SPORTS FINAL EDITION
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 40
LENGTH: 516 words
HEADLINE: YEARS OF KILLER STORMS LIKELY
BYLINE: BY DEREK ROSE DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER
BODY:
SO LONG, Sunshine State. Hello, Hurricane Alley.
Killer storms like Charley, Frances and now Ivan are not a temporary exception to the weather patterns affecting Florida but the continuation of a historic pattern, scientists say.
And it suggests more major hurricanes will be trolling the North Atlantic for years to come.
“We better be ready for an active hurricane season for the next few decades,” said John Gaynor, program manager for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s U.S. Weather Research Program. “It could last for another 30 years.”
Last month saw a record-setting eight named storms, as well as an unprecedented 173 tornadoes in the U.S., mostly spawned by Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley.
And in a hurricane season when experts predicted two to four major storms of Category 3 and up, Hurricane Ivan is already the fourth. The season doesn’t end until December, and its peak stretches from September through October.
If Ivan slams Florida it will be the third ‘cane to hit the peninsula this season, matching the record set in 1964. Frances swamped the state last weekend and Charley ripped a swath of destruction Aug. 13.
Hurricane expert William Gray of Colorado State University wrote recently that the “real surprise” is not that Florida is getting slammed in rapid succession – it’s that the peninsula has experienced so few hurricanes since 1965.
Scientists say the reason is a long-term shift in ocean temperatures dubbed the “Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.”
Before 1995, ocean currents were in a 24-year “cool” period. Now they’re in their “warm” phase. Those warmer waters spawn lighter winds – and light winds and warm waters breed hurricanes.
The nine years since 1995 have seen the highest number of hurricanes, major hurricanes – Category 3 or higher – and tropical storms, scientists say.
Temperatures in the Pacific Ocean also play a role. The Pacific is in a weak El Niño phase – meaning currents are warmer than normal – but the system is not strong enough to create hurricane-destroying winds.
There’s no way the gradual effects of global warming could be creating this dramatic increase in hurricanes, according to Gray. It’s simply a natural phenomenon.
The Atlantic warming changes other weather patterns, too, scientists say, with a silver lining for New Yorkers: less summer rain. Maybe that’ll make New York the new Sunshine State.